Gross Says QE3 Getting
Closer as Goldman Sees Easing
By
Wes Goodman - May 9, 2012 12:22 AM MT
Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross and Jan
Hatzius at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
(GS) say investors should prepare for additional bond purchases by the
Federal Reserve
to combat a slowing U.S. economy.
A decision to buy more debt is “getting closer,” Gross, who
runs Pimco's Total Return Fund, the world’s largest mutual fund, wrote on Twitter
yesterday. Hatzius, the chief economist at New York-based Goldman Sachs,
predicted in a report the same day that the Fed will announce additional
monetary easing when it meets in June.
Prospects for a third round of central bank asset purchases, known as
quantitative easing, or QE, increased after a Labor Department report May 4
showed U.S. employers added 115,000 jobs in April, the smallest gain in six
months. Europe’s
debt crisis is threatening to slow global growth. Ten-year Treasury yields
fell to 1.81 percent yesterday, approaching the record low of 1.67 percent
set Sept. 23.
“In such an uncertain environment, taking out a bit more insurance
still looks like the sensible choice for U.S. monetary policy
makers,” Hatzius wrote. “We have stuck with our forecast of
some additional monetary easing” at the Fed’s policy meeting
June 19 to June 20.
Bond Purchases
The central bank bought $2.3 trillion of bonds in two rounds of
quantitative easing, known as QE1 and QE2, from December 2008 to June
2011. The Fed is also replacing $400 billion of short-term Treasuries in
its holdings with longer- term debt to keep borrowing costs down, under a
program scheduled to end next month.
Policy makers have pledged to keep the target for overnight bank lending
as low as zero until at least late 2014.
Two Fed officials have questioned whether additional easing will work.
Fed Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said
yesterday that a drop in equity prices is no reason for the central bank to
intervene.
“Markets are manic depressive, they come and go,” Fisher
told reporters when asked if slumping markets and slower-than- expected
employment gains had changed his outlook for Fed policy. “The key to
success here is not further monetary accommodation.”
Shares Slumping
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to its lowest level in
two months yesterday.
Fed Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said
May 7 that much of U.S. unemployment results from structural weaknesses
such as inadequate training that can’t be fixed by Fed stimulus. The
U.S. jobless rate of 8.1 percent is the lowest in three years.
“Some commentators are urging the Fed to take additional action as
long as the unemployment rate
remains elevated,” Lacker said. “But if elevated unemployment
reflects largely fundamental factors rather than insufficient spending,
such stimulus might have little impact on unemployment and instead just
raise the risk of pushing inflation up.”
Lacker votes on monetary policy this year while Fisher does not.
The U.S. economy is “dreary,” Hatzius wrote.
Gross domestic product slowed to an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the
first quarter from 3 percent in the prior three months, the Commerce
Department reported April 27.
Greece Struggling
Politicians in Greece
struggled to form a new government, raising concern the nation will abandon
the euro as its currency.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes yielded 1.82 percent
today as of 8:17 a.m. in London, according to
Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The average over the past decade is 3.83
percent. The 2 percent security due in February 2022 changed hands at 101
18/32.
Low government rates have led investors to look for more attractive
yields outside the sovereign bond market.
Treasuries have returned 0.6 percent this year, eclipsed by a 4.8
percent rally for an index of U.S. investment grade and high-yield company
debt, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.
“Risk markets need more
ammo if they are to stay up,” Gross, who is based in Newport Beach, California, wrote on
Twitter.
Gross’ Total Return Fund has returned 4.8 percent this year, beating 98 percent of
its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pimco is a unit of the
Munich-based insurer Allianz SE. (ALV)
To contact the reporter on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net.